Week 5 NFL picks
-Underdogs (teams given points)
And more indepthly, combinations of the two:
Considering that I’m leaving for the Bills game in about seven hours, I think those numbers will wait for the next post. Here’s the basic findings:
-The best winning percentage of any group through four weeks is teams who were given points going on the road (.645).
-Home favorites have only won 11 games this year
-The two best teams this year against the spread are Kansas City (3-0) and St. Louis (3-0-1)
-The two worst teams this year a.t.s. are Arizona (0-3-1) and New Orleans (0-3*)
*The season opener Saints vs. Vikings was held on a Thursday and was not included in picks; and therefore not included in this study.
P.S. Buffalo News, update your site with this week’s picks! Had to bust out a print copy.
This Bills game could be a turning point for me as a fan. I’ve been able to deal with the losing from my couch. But today’s game isn’t on television. I’m giving up good money go watch the team live. If the Bills lay a goose egg, it’ll be a lot harder to deal with. It’s going to hurt a lot more, and I’m going to be upset with myself that I wasted money on the ticket. Okay that might be a lie, I’m sure I’ll have fun, but if we get spanked it’ll leave a sour taste in my mouth until my next pay day.
I really don’t want to dislike you, Bills. Don’t do this to me.
Jacksonville @ Bills (PK; no line, just pick the winner)– Jacksonville
I really want to pick the Bills, especially since I’ll be in attendance, but let’s just look at last week. The Bills looked miserable against the Jets, and Jacksonville took down the Colts. This is the first game of the year listed as PK, so I don’t have any fancy stats to pull here.
Denver (+7) @ Baltimore– Denver
Baltimore looked good last week and could be dangerous if they get rolling, but Denver looked good too, beating Tennessee on the road. Kyle Orton to Brandon Lloyd has been a surprisingly lethal combination.
Kansas City (+7 1/2) @ Indianapolis– Kansas City
Still playing the hot hand. I can’t see Indi losing two games in a row, but when things are going right–as they are for Kansas City–they’re really going right. The Chiefs had a bye week to get ready for Peyton, and they’ll be ready to show everyone they aren’t a fluke.
St. Louis (+3) @ Detroit–Detroit
Detroit has actually been a lot better than people think. Jahvid Best’s status will be key, but I’ll take the Lions returning home.
Atlanta @ Cleveland (+3)–Cleveland
The Browns were a plus-3 last week against Cincinnati at home and won the game. I’ll bet they can keep it tight against Atlanta, too.
Tampa Bay (+6 1/2) @ Cincinnati–Bengals
Still not convinced Tampa is even a decent team, despite their 2-1 record. Beat two softies, lost to a good team. More of the same.
Chicago (+1) @ Carolina–Bears
Da Bears. After getting embarrassed on prime time last week, I’ll bet the Bears are ready to go against a rookie QB.
Green Bay @ Washington (+2 1/2)–Packers
I still like Green Bay as the NFC Champ. I’ll take them by a field goal over the ‘Skins.
NYG (+3) @ Houston–Texans
Home teams getting points taken away are statistically the worst group of teams this year, but I still like Houston in this one. Matt Schaub won’t get sacked as many times as last week. Still riding the A-Train.
New Orleans @ Arizona (+7)–Saints
Saints desperately need a breakout performance. It’s not a question of are they good enough. We know they are. Arizona is a good opponent to beat bigtime.
San Diego @ Oakland (+6)–Chargers
San Diego is rolling. Who is Oakland’s QB? Jason Campbell? JaMarcus Russell? Marcus Tuiasosopo? It’s Bruce Gradkowski. Yeah.
Tennessee (+7) @ Dallas–Titans
Chris Johnson needs to get rolling early. Tennessee pass-D has been good this year, Tony Romo will have pressure all day.
Philadelphia (+3) @ San Francisco–49ers Best bet
QB issues in Philly? San Francisco finally busts through.
Minnesota (+4) @ Jets–Vikings
Brett to Randy all day long. Moss always does well in his first game with a team. Without Moss I’m taking the Jets.
Standings: “It’s gonna be a dramatic comeback” -Herb Brooks, Miracle. Best Bets in parenthesis.
Sullivan 34-24-3 (2-2)
DiCesare 30-28-3 (2-2)
Northrop 28-30-3 (4-0)
McKissic, Gaughan 27-31-3 (2-2, 3-1)
Wilson 26-32-3 (2-2)
It’s Always Game Seven 18-40-3 (2-1-1)
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Tags: Brandon Lloyd, Buffalo Bills, Kyle Orton, MJD, picks