Mel Kiper’s haircut

Von Miller. That's what I look like that in Under Armour, too...

The long-awaited NFL Draft is finally here. They’ve been talking about this thing for months, but before today, the most important bit of news on the topic has been the fact that Mel Kiper got his hair cut this week.

Because really, I couldn’t care less about players moving two spots on the Big Board from the week before, especially in the middle of March. I can’t handle predictions for the draft — often dubbed the biggest crapshoot in sports — months before it even takes place.

I’ll never understand how player rankings can change so much from the end of the season to the big day, but they say it helps teams make better, more informed picks (apparently the Bills haven’t picked up on this). NFL reporters aren’t going to do nothing after the Super Bowl, but it just wouldn’t be ESPN if they didn’t give us the same news as the day before with a minor tweak instead of showing more about the Stanley Cup playoffs.

Now that were finally within my range of acceptable time to discuss the draft (pushed back a little bit by the Sabres), I’m ready to talk about the third name Roger Goodell might read next tonight.

I read Allen Wilson’s draft preview in the Buffalo News last week and I watched ESPN’s segment dissecting the Buffalo Bills, both of which have Buddy Nix taking Texas A&M linebacker Von Miller. As Kiper noted in the segment, a linebacker like Miller fits the persona of Buffalo picks — not flashy or sexy, but a safe pick made to fill a need (and a pretty darn good player, too).

That’s about the best argument there is for him. He’s a pass rushing outside linebacker who would be a nice fit for the Bills’ 3-4 defense that is not getting what it hoped out of Aaron Maybin. I don’t think Paul Posluszny has done that well either, but he has gone on the record saying he “want[s] to be a Buffalo Bill for a long time,” which is more than most can say. I’m not expecting much out of Shawne Merriman.

Hopefully Miller would also help the run defense, which was  painful to watch last season, giving up a league-worst 169.6 yards per game.

Public opinion seems to be split between Miller and Alabama defensive lineman Marcell Dareus. Allen Wilson didn’t think he’d be available for the Bills at 3. Todd McShay says Carolina should take him No. 1.

Dareus is 6-3, 319, and looks to be an immediate impact player. I think the offensive line is a bigger need area for the Bills than defensive line, but players this good are hard to pass up. Buddy Nix has a track record of taking the best player available, regardless of need (see: Spiller, C.J., for a recent example), and Dareus fits that mold. He just might not make it to 3.

Some people argue Cam Newton is one of those players that is the best around. Potential franchise quarterback, they say. He’s one heck of an athlete, but I just don’t see it.

When I think of franchise quarterbacks, I think Peyton Manning and Tom Brady. These are pocket passers, not scramblers. Last season at Auburn, Newton ran for 1,409 yards. In their careers, Manning and Brady have a combined 1,329.

That alone is not a fair assessment of Newton because he did put up one of the highest passer efficiency ratings in NCAA history and is not a true scrambler, but the NFL is much different from the NCAA. No matter good the defenses are in the SEC, you just don’t draw up running plays like that for quarterbacks in the NFL, and from all accounts, Newton is no Mike Vick.

Donovan McNabb is a rarity, but I’m not comfortable handing the keys over to a rookie. The Bills are driving a beat up ’75 Ford as it is. You don’t put a first-time driver behind the wheel and expect him not to have problems with the car.

Marcell Dareus is a baaaddd man.

You’d think Bills fans would learn the lesson with one-year wonders after seeing what Maybin (hasn’t) done on the field. Newton was at Florida for two years, didn’t play behind Tebow and ended up transferring to a junior college in Texas. Blinn won the national championship under Newton, but I really hope a lot of D-I quarterbacks could succeed in JUCO.

The funny part is that after the BCS National Championship game, all the talk was about Nick Fairley and the inevitability of him going first overall after such a dominating performance. He’s since fallen from the “you’ll never be able to spend this much money as long as you live” draft spots to the “just boatloads of money” positions, although neither is a good place to be for someone who reportedly has responsibility and work ethic issues.

The only argument I like for Newton is that it makes a splash. It puts the Bills on the map and gives us a player everyone knows about. When I was in L.A., a professional NHL journalist made the comment that “it must be hard in Buffalo with the Sabres being [our] only pro team.” I paused for a second and my tone changed. “We have the Bills,” I said, sparking laughter among others in the room (I’m hoping because they felt bad for the guy, not because they forgot too). Newton would be a player fans across the country would associate with Buffalo and would be a nice talking point for people to bring up the Bills.

Truth be told, I don’t want either Auburn product on my team. I approve of Miller or Dareus, and I wouldn’t be that mad to learn the Bills traded down if someone came calling.

I feel not taking a quarterback at some point would be a huge mistake. There will be high-profile passers around when the Bills come up in the second round, which is where I’d like to see Christian Ponder or Ryan Mallett taken. Andy Dalton and Jake Locker also fit into this draft position, but I’m not as high on them.

Blaine Gabbert isn’t a terrible pick at 3, if that’s a route the Bills want to take, but it is a stretch. However, I’d rather have Gabbert than Newton. If the Bills want to wait a little bit longer on a QB, Ricky Stanzi could be a good middle-round pick. After that, it’s really not worth it.

Whoever we draft, I want Fitzpatrick under center next season. Let the kid watch and learn for a little bit. A lot of rookies become captain checkdown like Trent Edwards, too afraid (or not confident enough) to throw into tight spaces. It would be good for any young guy to learn from Fitzpatrick’s ballsy, “I can fit it in there, just watch me” style.

Patrick Peterson (DB) and A.J. Green (WR) are both highly talented, high first round picks, but for once, I’m hoping the Bills can just pick someone we won’t hate them for.