Welcome to Year Four of NFL picks.

The goal remains the same. The methods remain changing.

If I ever find one that works I’ll let you know.

Or move to Vegas.

History:

2010: 108-132-5 (11-6 best bets), last among Buffalo News pickers. Picking against the spread is much harder than it looks, I learned.

2011: 118-119-2 (no best bets), third among TBN. I was tied in second heading into Week 17. Just missed a winning record.

2012: 115-115-9 (11-4-1 best bets), fourth among TBN. Getting warmer…

(Not all years have the same number of games due to varying number of mid-week games, which aren’t included in picks.)

Overall total: 341-366-16. Don’t you have 1-in-2 odds of getting it right? Technically, yeah, but if it was that easy everyone could do it.

Week One picks, based on lines printed in Thursday’s Pittsburgh Post-Gazette:

Tennessee +7 at Pittsburgh — Pittsburgh

New England -9.5 at Buffalo — New England

Atlanta +3 at New Orleans — Atlanta

Tampa -3 at Jets — Tampa

Kansas City -4 at Jacksonville — Kansas City

Cincinnati +3 at Chicago — Chicago

Miami at Cleveland (pick) — Miami

Seattle -3.5 at Carolina — Carolina

Minnesota +5 at Detroit — Minnesota

Oakland +9.5 at Indianapolis — Indianapolis*

Arizona +4.5 at St. Louis — St. Louis

Green Bay +4.5 at San Francisco — Green Bay

Giants +3.5 at Dallas — Giants

Philadelphia +3.5 at Washington — Washington

Houston -4 at San Diego — Houston

Feel free to rip me when I’m wrong: Twitter @NickVeronica.