Only the preseason? Fitzpatrick, Bills look like it’s still the preseason in opener

The preseason doesn’t matter, right? Save it. The Buffalo Bills continued their sleepwalk into the regular season Sunday, dropping the opener for the fifth time in the last seven seasons.

Looking at the final stat lines doesn’t begin to tell the story of Ryan Fitzpatrick’s day at MetLife Stadium. For most of Sunday’s season opener against the New York Jets, Fitzpatrick was a boy lost in a man’s world.

Fans were calling for Vince Young to come back. And you know it’s bad when Mark Sanchez shows you up.

Fitzpatrick and Sanchez both threw three touchdown passes in what would be a 48-28 Jets win, but Sanchez got all three of his when it was still a game, well before Fitzpatrick could put anything together. The Bills finally got the ball moving through the air after New York went up 41-7, with Fitzpatrick’s three garbage-time touchdowns matching his three interceptions.

Saying Fitzpatrick couldn’t get comfortable in the pocket would be putting it nicely. He was terrible in the first half and merely bad in the second.

Fitzpatrick forced passes into windows he’d be lucky to hit at a family picnic, let alone with a pass rush in his face and Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie in coverage. He threw to receivers that weren’t even sort-of open, missed reads and was late on his throws. Jets cornerbacks had a field day in the first half — and if they messed up, Fitzpatrick’s throws didn’t make them pay.

The defense wasn’t any better. Mario Williams, Mark Anderson and the new-and-seemingly-unimproved defensive line was invisible. The Bills didn’t have a sack and weren’t even credited with a QB hit.

The secondary got picked apart by Sanchez and a slew of largely unknown receivers. Leodis McKelvin followed Fitzpatrick’s lead of continuing last season’s struggles, getting picked on routinely. Rookie Stephon Gilmore didn’t look good, nor did sophomore Aaron Williams.

For all the time the Bills defense spent worrying about Tim Tebow and the Wildcat offense, Tebow didn’t get to throw once and wasn’t much of a factor. Then again, he didn’t have to be — Sanchez took care of the scoring.

One of the few positives of the game was C.J. Spiller’s career-high 169 yards on just 14 carries (12.1 yards per attempt), though it may have come at the cost of losing Fred Jackson for an extended period of time. We’ll know for certain how bad his knee injury is after an MRI tomorrow, but it looked pretty bad when it happened. Receiver David Nelson’s knee injury could be even worse.

Starting the regular season doesn’t mean there’s some switch the team flips to automatically start playing good football. It’s going to take more practice and more players playing like they should (Mario Williams? Williams? Bueller?). Probably the only good news ahead for the Bills is that Kansas City and Cleveland are the next two opponents on the schedule. But Fitzpatrick and Co. better figure something out soon. If they play like the did Sunday against New England and San Francisco, it’s going get a lot uglier than a 20-point loss.


NFL Week 12 picks

With one career rushing touchdown to his name, this may be top-10 draft pick C.J. Spiller’s last shot to prove he isn’t a bust.

JETS (-9) over Bills

ST. LOUIS (-3) over Arizona

CINCINNATI (-7) over Cleveland

JACKSONVILLE (+3.5) over Houston

Carolina (-3.5) over INDIANAPOLIS

TENNESSEE (-3) over Tampa Bay

ATLANTA (-9.5) over Minnesota

Chicago (+4.5) over OAKLAND

SEATTLE (-3.5) over Washington

New England (-3) over PHILADELPHIA

Denver (+6) over SAN DIEGO

Pittsburgh (-10.5) over KANSAS CITY*

NEW ORLEANS (-7) over Giants


Skurski: 78-73-6 (4-6-1)
Game Seven 77-74-6 (4-5-1)
Northrop: 76-75-6 (6-4-1)
McKissic: 74-77-6 (5-6)
Gaughan: 73-78-6 (5-5-1)
DiCesare: 71-80-6 (5-5-1)
Sullivan: 70-81-6 (6-4-1)

Last week

Bills (+2 1/2) at Miami
Dolphins 35-8. Win
Tennessee (+6) at Atlanta
Falcons 23-17. Push
Cincinnati (+7) at Baltimore
Ravens 31-24. Push
Jacksonville (pick) at Cleveland
Browns 14-10. Loss
Oakland at Minnesota (+1)
Raiders 27-21. Win
Carolina (+7) at Detroit
Lions 49-35. Win
Tampa Bay (+14) at Green Bay
Green Bay
Packers 35-26. Loss
Dallas at Washington (+7 1/2)
Cowboys 27-24. Loss
Arizona (+9 1/2) at San Francisco
49ers 23-7. Win
Seattle (+1 1/2) at St. Louis
Seahawks 24-7. Win
San Diego (+3 1/2) at Chicago
Bears 31-20. Win
Philadelphia (+4 1/2) at Giants
Eagles 17-10. Loss
Kansas City (+14 1/2) at New England
Patriots 34-3. Win

NFL Week 2 picks

I’m trying really hard not to be “that guy,” but I’m still far from sold on the Buffalo Bills this year.

They won one game. Against a team that played miserably. We know the Bills aren’t a team that will put up 41 points on a regular basis. I was very impressed with a lot of things last week, but you have to attribute a lot of our success to Kansas City’s poor play.

Steve Johnson hauled in a nice touchdown reception and threw the (legal) cut block on Eric Berry that injured his knee.

Eric Berry went down with a season-ending injury on the first drive after getting flattened by Steve Johnson (imagine what would’ve happened if he tried to cross the Moats). They were without their best player nearly the entire game.

The Bills did well for themselves to score early, but that’s the only reason the Chiefs’ running game never got going. Jamaal Charles didn’t run poorly (5.6 yards per carry), Kansas City was just forced to pass because it was down so many. Charles only had 10 carries.

Dwayne Bowe had a pedestrian 17 yards on two catches, so I give lots of credit to a banged-up Bills secondary that also limited Matt Cassel to 119 yards.

There were a lot of positives to take from last game. C.J. Spiller even managed to get his first career rushing touchdown. I don’t hate the Bills, I’m just not sold yet. The Raiders present a bigger challenge. People forget Oakland was an 8-8 team last season, and in football, a .500 team is one that was fairly competitive. The Bills probably could have been close to 8-8 if a few key bounces went our way, but they didn’t, and that’s why we were 4-12.

I like the Bills to win a close one at the home opener. I do wish the line was smaller than three points, but everyone else probably does, too.

BUFFALO (-3) over Oakland

NEW ORLEANS (-6.5) over Chicago

DETROIT (-8) over Kansas City

JETS (-9.5) over Jacksonville

Arizona (+3.5) over WASHINGTON

Baltimore (-6) over TENNESSEE

Seattle (+14) over PITTSBURGH

CAROLINA (+10) over Green Bay

Tampa Bay (+3) over MINNESOTA

INDIANAPOLIS (+2) over Cleveland

Dallas (-3) over SAN FRANCISCO

Houston (-3) over MIAMI

NEW ENGLAND (-7) over San Diego

Cincinnati (+3.5) over DENVER

Philadelphia (-2.5) over ATLANTA*

GIANTS (-6) over ST. LOUIS

Last week:

KANSAS CITY (-6) over Buffalo
Bills 41-7. Loss

Pittsburgh (+2 1/2) over BALTIMORE
Ravens 35-7. Loss
TAMPA BAY (-2) over Detroit
Lions 27-20. Loss
CHICAGO (+3) over Atlanta
Bears 30-12. Win
Indianapolis (+8 1/2) over HOUSTON
Texans 34-7. Loss
Philadelphia (-5) over ST. LOUIS
Eagles 31-13. Win
Cincinnati (+6 1/2) over CLEVELAND
Bengals 27-17. Win
Tennessee (+2) over JACKSONVILLE*
Jags 16-14. Push
Giants (-3) over WASHINGTON
Redskins 28-14. Loss
Carolina (+7) over ARIZONA
Cards 28-21. Push
Seattle (+5) over SAN FARNCISCO
49ers 33-17. Loss
Minnesota (+8 1/2) over SAN DIEGO
Chargers 24-17. Win
JETS (-4 1/2) over Dallas
Jets 27-24. Loss
New England (-7) over MIAMI
Pats 38-2. Win
DENVER (-3) over Oakland
Raiders 23-20. Loss
5-8-2, 0-0-1

2010 first round RB watch:

C.J. Spiller 5 rushes, 16 yards, 3.2 YPC, 1 TD.

Ryan Matthews 12 rushes, 45 yards, 3.8 YPC, 0 TD.

Jahvid Best 21 rushes, 72 yards, 3.4 YPC, 0 TD.

Early-round strategy key in fantasy drafts

The draft is the most important part of your fantasy football season. Preparation is key.

You wouldn’t go into the big game without studying your opponent and you wouldn’t go into an interview without doing some research on the company first. Why people think they can go into a fantasy football draft without doing any homework whatsoever and still pick a winning team is beyond me.

At the very least you need to look over the rankings, and not just for 30 seconds before the draft starts. Form some opinions, make a few educated guesses. That doesn’t mean saying “Matt Forte sucks.” (He doesn’t.) That means looking at some numbers and saying “Shonn Greene and Felix Jones will have a bounce-back seasons because…” (They will.)

Have a strategy. Your turn to pick will come before you know it, and there’s nothing worse than being caught off-guard and looking down at your sheet to realize you don’t like any of the next 10 names listed. Wait, names? You don’t even know what position you’re targeting.

Believe in the Madden curse? Don't take Peyton Hillis.

If you take a running back in the first round, are you going for another running back in the second round? The double-RB strategy that fell out of favor the last few years is making a resurgence, but that doesn’t mean it’s right for you. Do you grab Peyton Hillis in the second round or take someone else and hope he falls to you in the third? Double-up RBs with Steven Jackson or grab Hakeem Nicks? You need to be prepared for situations like these.

What if you decide to go unconventional and take a quarterback or wide receiver in the first round? Do you know what positions you need to take in the next rounds to counter for your first pick? The draft is like a game of chess in this regard: not only do you need to make the right moves, but also you must make them in the right order.

Here’s a look at several situations that will come up in your draft, loosely arranged by the order in which they will happen.

What to do with the third pick?

Usually landing the third overall pick will get you a running back you will start every week. You sit happily in your chair as Adrian Peterson and Arian Foster come off the board. History and your cheat sheet both say to take Chris Johnson without thinking twice, but the logical part of your brain makes you worry. Yeah, he’s a great talent and always puts up points. But this time next week will be September, and he still hasn’t practiced!

Holdouts suck. If you want to pass over him and take Jamaal Charles, there’s nothing wrong with that decision. You can’t win your league in the early rounds, but you can certainly lose it. If Johnson gets hurt or is unproductive, that’s a waste of your first-round pick. Charles, who averaged 6.4 yards per carry last season, is definitely the safer pick; Johnson just has slightly more upside based on his past performance. I’m hoping this isn’t a call I have to make, but I think I’d have to go with Charles.

If you have the fourth pick and are worried about Johnson, I would definitely understand if you took Ray Rice ahead of him, too. Again, it’s a call I hope I don’t have to make. If you have the fifth pick, well, that’s perfect because the decision will be made for you and you get a better pick coming back around. If you do take Johnson, make sure you handcuff him with (Michigan State product) Javon Ringer in the late rounds.

Do alternative strategies work?

Filling a running back slot in the first round is sound fantasy strategy. Taking a quarterback is bold, and taking a receiver is very bold. Do these strategies really work?

If you read Matthew Berry’s Draft Day Manifesto (definitely read it, if you have half an hour), you know he has the hots for Mike Vick this year, suggesting you might even take him with the first overall pick.

Don’t do that. But taking a QB in the latter-half of the first round is not a bad idea. Most people have Aaron Rodgers one, Vick two. Both usually go in the first round (I’ve seen as high as third overall), but I wouldn’t pass over a great RB early.

Think of running backs in tiers. The first tier is Peterson and Foster. Johnson would be in the first tier if he was in camp all summer. Except he wasn’t, so he joins Charles and Rice in the second tier. Those five running backs are pretty consistently the top five backs drafted. Outside the top five backs, there is some variation. Rashard Mendenhall, Maurice Jones-Drew and LeSean McCoy are the sixth, seventh and eighth RBs, but in no consistent order. MJD’s stock has been falling since July. McCoy’s is up and Mendenall’s has stayed about the same.

Hey Bills, see what happens when your quarterback of the future has a good mentor?

So what to do? Some people are giving up on the guessing game and taking a QB at six. I think that’s too early. Make a call on the six-to-eight group and take one of them.

After the top eight there is even more variation. Here’s where I draw the line. You might not get Rodgers at ninth overall, but if he’s there, I take him. If he’s gone I take the top-eight RB who didn’t go yet. Not until 10 do I look for Vick, who I take only if the previous nine are off the board.

Andre Johnson is a hot commodity in the first round, and even in ESPN’s latest 12-team mock draft, Roddy White went in the first round. It’s not that WRs aren’t important, I just wouldn’t take one early because it messes up your next several picks. I know waiting until ninth overall means I might not get any of the three alternatives in the first round, but I’m okay with that.

The elite QBs will be gone by the early third round. If you want one and you already drafted a receiver, you’ll have to grab the QB in the second round, which now means you are passing on running back until at least the third round. If you go for a back in the second round, you’ll have an RB who is good, not great, and no elite quarterback. When others are taking their wide receivers at about the spots they are worth, you will have a need a fill, and odds are you fill it with someone who isn’t worth the spot you have to take him in.

In the ESPN mock draft, Jim McCormick and Shawn Cwalinski went with WRs in the first round. Cwalinski took White at 11 and Drew Brees at 14, leaving Ahmad Bradshaw and LeGarrette Blount as his starting running backs. McCormick somehow still has a job after taking wide receivers with his first two picks — Andre Johnson seventh and Larry Fitzgerald 17th — leaving Peyton Hillis, Shonn Greene and Tony Romo as his next three picks.

Berry and Pierre Becquey took QBs in the first round. Becquey paired Greg Jennings with Rodgers in the second round and made Ryan Matthews his top RB in the third round. He completed the Ryan backfield with Ryan Williams from Arizona and Washington’s Ryan Torain later. Not exactly a dynamic fantasy running game (especially since Williams got injured and is out for the season). Berry took Michael Turner in the second round but then went WR-TE-WR-WR before picking up Mike Tolbert and Willis McGahee. Again, not a great running back selection.

To answer the question “Do I have to draft a running back in the first round?” the answer is no, but you definitely need to make sure you make up for with your next few picks. I don’t start to look for Andre Johnson until 11th overall, after Rodgers and Vick and when I know there will be decent running backs left when my turn to pick comes up again in the second round.

Other draft trends to watch for

  • Bye weeks. Last year it sucked for fantasy owners when the NFL went with six bye-week teams in weeks 8 and 9 instead of four. This year, all the bye weeks have six teams, except for weeks 9 and 11 (no byes Week 10… some sort of preventative measure in case the lockout had cut into the season). Just our luck as fantasy owners, even Week 11 has been a killer in the mock drafts I’ve done: Houston, Indianapolis, New Orleans and Pittsburgh.
Neat little graphic from The Sporting News.
  • Dare I say it, but Peyton Manningis a player I’d stay away from. After an offseason neck surgery that apparently was a bigger deal than most people thought, it doesn’t look like Manning will be able to go Week 1. A neck injury is definitely one that could affect his throwing, and like Chris Johnson, I’m weary of a guy who hasn’t practiced all summer. QBs don’t need to be as well-conditioned as running backs but getting the timing down is more important.Plus, Indi just brought in Kerry Collins at $4 million. Not exactly inspiring for Manning owners. You have to think that Manning (again, like Johnson) is good enough to still put up points, but with the amount of talented QBs out there, I’m letting him be someone else’s problem. Take Phillip Rivers before him, and maybe Tony Romo, too.
  • A few more important wide receiver notes that I felt could wait after my Matthew Berry-esque, 3,400-word wide receiver outlook for this year:Be careful with Jeremy Maclin. He’s a good receiver in a good system, but just got to camp last week after an illness that left him out of shape and 15 pounds lighter than he started. Nobody knew what the heck was wrong with him: He was tested for mono, AIDS, leukemia and lymphoma — all negative. It’s good that he doesn’t have any of those at age 23, but do you really trust a guy to produce in the NFL who was just so sick he got tested for cancer?

"Hey, I'm Dez Bryant, and I like to catch passes in my undies."

Dez Bryant is rated too high. I had the misfortune of having to start him on one of my teams several times last year. He was inconsistent, frequently injured and reportedly a bit of a head case. This year should undoubtedly go better for him than his rookie season, but make no mistake that Miles Austin is still Romo’s favorite target. Dez should have a good season, I just wouldn’t make him by No. 1 WR.

Oh, and stay away from Hines Ward. Seriously. His average was only 6.3 points per week last season and his median was more than two full points below that. Waiver-wire fill-in, but someone will draft him. Don’t let it be you.

  • I explained in the last post why I usually don’t draft Buffalo Bills, but C.J. Spiller could be a sleeper. As Jerry Sullivan’s column noted, the Gailey regime wants to give its own guy a shot. It sucks for Fred Jackson, but fantasy owners don’t have time for feelings. Just win, baby. Despite Spiller’s ineffectiveness in the preseason, there are other clues he will see an increased workload. He has the tools for the job, he just has to figure out how to use them.

  • Last year I kept a track on the three running backs who were selected in the first round of the NFL Draft: Spiller, Jahvid Best and Ryan Matthews. This year, the highest rated back from that draft class is… LeGarrette Blount. I’ll always know him as the guy from Oregon who snapped and punched Boise State defensive end Byron Hout in the face (and got himself suspended for the rest of the season), but he’s the top back in a Buccaneer offense that went 10-6 last season and narrowly missed the playoffs. He’s a big boy to tackle (6-foot, 247 pounds), went over 1,000 yards last season and averaged 5.0 YPC.


  • Stay away from Miami running backs. After having one of the more feared ground games in the league, Miami parted ways with both Ronnie Brown (Eagles) and Ricky Williams (Ravens). They brought in Reggie Bush and drafted Daniel Thomas. Thomas has been okay in preseason and Reggie Bush is, well, Reggie Bush. Like the Peyton Manning situation, it’s not exactly confidence-inspiring that they brought in Priest Holmes (of all people) to add depth. They are clearly worried about the running situation and you should be too.
  • Be wary of James Starks. Like Buffalo Bills, someone in your league will go too high for him. Everybody thought Shonn Greene would have a good year last year because he produced in the playoffs the winter before, but he was a bust. I don’t like him for where he’s ranked and even less so because he’s from here.
  • Last things last… let’s talk about kickers and defenses. The “experts” always say don’t take a kicker until the last round. Your kicker is going to start every week. It’s possible a 15th- or 16th-round receiver will break out, but for the most part you know what you’re getting, which is next to nothing. Don’t go crazy on me, but taking a kicker in the 13th round isn’t the worst thing in the world.The “experts” also want you to wait on defenses, which I don’t like either. Defenses score points. Take one early. It’s true that you can usually find a decent one every week on the waiver wire, but a top-flight defense is a lot more valuable than people think.If you read this long you are being rewarded with this advice. Take, for instance, Pittsburgh D/ST, which scored 188 points last season by ESPN standard scoring (including a minus-8 week). That’s more points than Maurice Jones-Drew and Andre Johnson had last year. Let everyone else fool around trying to look up who-plays-who every week. There are only five defenses right now with an average draft position in the top 100. You know what to do.

Week 3 review: Don’t hang your heads

Is “Beast Mode” coming out of hybernation?Picks:

NEW ENGLAND (-14) over Buffalo
Pats 38-30. Loss

NY GIANTS (-3) over Tennessee
Titans 29-10. Loss

Cleveland (+10 1/2) over BALTIMORE
Baltimore 24-17. Win

Pittsburgh (-2 1/2)  over TAMPA BAY
Steelers 38-13. Win

Cincinnati (-3) over CAROLINA (best bet)
Bengals 20-7. Win

NEW ORLEANS (-4) over Atlanta
Falcons 27-24 (OT). Loss

KANSAS CITY (+2 1/2) over San Francisco
Chiefs 21-10. Win

Detroit (+11) over MINNESOTA
Vikings 24-10. Loss

HOUSTON (-3) over Dallas
Cowboys 27-13. Loss

Washington (-3 1/2) over ST. LOUIS
Rams 30-16. Loss

JACKSONVILLE (+3) over Philadelphia
What was I thinking. Eagles 28-3. Loss

Indianapolis (-5 1/2) over DENVER
Colts 27-13. Win

San Diego over SEATTLE (+5 1/2)
Seahawks 27-20. Loss

ARIZONA (-4) over Oakland
Cards 24-23. Loss

Jets (+2 1/2) over MIAMI
Jets 31-23. Win

Green Bay (-3) over CHICAGO
Bears, 20-17. Loss

6-10 week. Much like the Bills, that still isn’t good, but its an improvement. Just going to regroup and try again next week.